Model Probability

The model's own estimate of how likely an outcome is, before the market is consulted. Comparing it to the no-vig implied probability is exactly how the edge on a pick is computed.

• Edge — The model's estimated advantage over the market — the gap between its projected win probability and the probability implied by the price.
• Implied Probability — The win probability baked into a price. −110 implies ≈52.4%, +150 implies 40%. Comparing the model probability to this is how an edge is found.