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MVP Capping

Free cheat sheet

A bettor's preflight checklist before you fire.

The betting cheat sheet is a one-page process check you run before every wager. It confirms the number, price, stake and tracking rules. It is built on the same fundamentals MVP Capping tracks: , price, and discipline.

Before betting

  1. 1Convert the sportsbook price to implied probability, then remove vig before comparing it to your number.
  2. 2Write down the exact book, price, line, timestamp, and stake before the game starts.
  3. 3Risk a fixed unit size or fractional Kelly amount; never raise stake just because you are due.
  4. 4Compare at least two books for moneylines and spreads; compare more for props and derivative markets.
  5. 5Review results by league, market, and model signal instead of judging every pick as one blended bucket.

Red flags

  • The pick only works at a stale line you cannot actually bet.
  • The handicap mentions a trend but never states the current price.
  • A parlay leg is correlated, but the payout is priced like the legs are independent.
  • Confidence rises after a line moves against the pick without a new reason.
  • Your tracked record omits pushes, voids, or losing premium picks.

Core formulas

Expected value

(Win % x profit) - (Loss % x stake)

Break-even

Risk / (Risk + Win)

Half-Kelly

0.5 x ((bp - q) / b)

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