EPL · Model picks
Premier League, quantified.
English Premier League picks from the MVP Capping model — 1X2 (home/draw/away) — backed by a goals-based projection and graded against the closing price.
Live from the lab
What the models are calling right now
Every prediction is timestamped before the game starts and graded when it ends. Locked ones unlock with Pro.
Best strategies
What is working lately
A strategy is one model in one league and one market, ranked on its own graded record.
Best 30 days
Best 7 days
Nothing qualifies yet: a strategy needs 5 graded picks in this window.
Best 30 days
Nothing qualifies yet: a strategy needs 15 graded picks in this window.
Best 90 days
Nothing qualifies yet: a strategy needs 30 graded picks in this window.
Every model, pooled · last 90 days · since 2026-07-31
- Record
- 25-38
- Win Rate: The percentage of settled bets that won, excluding pushes and voids from the denominator. On its own win rate can mislead — a high win rate on heavy favorites can still be unprofitable — so it is read alongside ROI and units.
- 39.7%
- Unit: A standardized stake size used to measure performance independent of bankroll — typically 1% to 2% of a bankroll. Records are tracked in units (e.g. +12.5u) so a handicapper’s results can be compared fairly without knowing dollar amounts.
- -8.63u
- total profit across all picks
- Closing Line Value (CLV): The difference between the price you got on a bet and the closing line — the final market price right before the game starts. Consistently beating the close (positive CLV) is the strongest evidence a bet had real value, independent of whether it won on the day.
- +0.08
- edge vs. the closing line
A flat 90 days on pooled units. Avg CLV stayed positive — the leading indicator, win or lose.
FAQ
EPL betting questions
How does the model price the draw?
The model projects expected goals per side and derives home / draw / away probabilities from them, so the draw is a first-class outcome rather than an afterthought.
Which EPL markets are covered?
Match result (1X2). Goal totals and Asian handicap are not covered — no soccer total pick has ever been published, and we would rather say so than imply coverage we do not have.
When are EPL picks published?
EPL uses a rolling multi-day window, so picks can appear ahead of kickoff once the model finds positive expected value above its edge threshold.
Do you cover cup competitions?
The main board focuses on the Premier League; other competitions are added as data coverage allows.
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