MLS · Model picks
MLS picks, model-driven.
Major League Soccer picks from the MVP Capping model — 1X2 (home/draw/away) — with a goals-based projection, line movement, and auto-graded results.
Live from the lab
What the models are calling right now
Every prediction is timestamped before the game starts and graded when it ends. Locked ones unlock with Pro.
Nothing published right now. New predictions post as the slate opens.
Best strategies
What is working lately
A strategy is one model in one league and one market, ranked on its own graded record.
Best 30 days
Every model, pooled · last 90 days · since 2026-07-31
- Record
- 81-130
- Win Rate: The percentage of settled bets that won, excluding pushes and voids from the denominator. On its own win rate can mislead — a high win rate on heavy favorites can still be unprofitable — so it is read alongside ROI and units.
- 38.4%
- Unit: A standardized stake size used to measure performance independent of bankroll — typically 1% to 2% of a bankroll. Records are tracked in units (e.g. +12.5u) so a handicapper’s results can be compared fairly without knowing dollar amounts.
- +1.36u
- total profit across all picks
- Closing Line Value (CLV): The difference between the price you got on a bet and the closing line — the final market price right before the game starts. Consistently beating the close (positive CLV) is the strongest evidence a bet had real value, independent of whether it won on the day.
- +0.07
- edge vs. the closing line
FAQ
MLS betting questions
How does the model handle the draw?
Soccer is a three-way market. The model projects expected goals for each side and converts them into home / draw / away probabilities, so the draw is priced explicitly, not ignored.
Which MLS markets are covered?
Match result (1X2). Goal totals and Asian handicap are not covered — no soccer total pick has ever been published, and we would rather say so than imply coverage we do not have.
How many MLS picks per day?
Varies by slate — typically 1–4 picks on a matchday, only where the model finds edge over the no-vig price.
Do you cover the MLS Cup Playoffs?
Yes. The model runs on any match with sufficient market liquidity, including the postseason.
From the blog
Latest analysis
Today's picks
Best Bets Today: NBA, NHL, NCAAF & 3 more Model Picks — October 29, 2026
66 model picks on today's 92-game NBA, NHL, NCAAF, WNBA & 2 more slate, with the full schedule, where the models see an edge, and how every pick is graded.
Slate preview
NBA, NHL, NCAAF & 5 more Picks Today — October 29, 2026
NBA, NHL, NCAAF, WNBA & 4 more on October 29: 94 games, 66 model picks posted before kickoff, each graded against the closing line after the final.
Today's picks
Best Bets Today: NBA, NHL, NCAAF & 3 more Model Picks — October 28, 2026
64 model picks on today's 66-game NBA, NHL, NCAAF, MLS & 2 more slate, with the full schedule, where the models see an edge, and how every pick is graded.
Daily recap
MLB, NBA, NHL & 4 more Picks Results — October 28, 2026 (59-35)
59-35 (-3.54u) on 94 graded picks · MLB, NBA, NHL, NCAAF & 3 more results for October 28: 202 events, every pick graded win or lose.
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