NFL · Model picks
NFL picks, model-driven.
Daily NFL picks from the MVP Capping model stack — spread and moneyline — with rest, travel, line movement, and auto-graded CLV on every call.
Live from the lab
What the models are calling right now
Every prediction is timestamped before the game starts and graded when it ends. Locked ones unlock with Pro.
Best strategies
What is working lately
A strategy is one model in one league and one market, ranked on its own graded record.
Best 30 days
Every model, pooled · last 90 days · since 2026-07-31
- Record
- 144-140-9
- Win Rate: The percentage of settled bets that won, excluding pushes and voids from the denominator. On its own win rate can mislead — a high win rate on heavy favorites can still be unprofitable — so it is read alongside ROI and units.
- 50.7%
- Unit: A standardized stake size used to measure performance independent of bankroll — typically 1% to 2% of a bankroll. Records are tracked in units (e.g. +12.5u) so a handicapper’s results can be compared fairly without knowing dollar amounts.
- -6.50u
- total profit across all picks
- Closing Line Value (CLV): The difference between the price you got on a bet and the closing line — the final market price right before the game starts. Consistently beating the close (positive CLV) is the strongest evidence a bet had real value, independent of whether it won on the day.
- +0.01
- edge vs. the closing line
A flat 90 days on pooled units. Avg CLV stayed positive — the leading indicator, win or lose.
FAQ
NFL betting questions
How does the model handle rest and short weeks?
Rest days, short weeks (Thursday games), and travel distance are embedded features in the projection. The confidence breakdown surfaces them when they are a meaningful driver.
Which NFL markets are covered?
Spread and moneyline. The model publishes whichever shows sufficient edge on a game-by-game basis. Game totals are retired pending a model that clears our profitability bar.
When are NFL picks published?
NFL uses a rolling multi-day window, so picks can appear days ahead of kickoff once the model finds positive expected value above its edge threshold.
Do you cover the playoffs and Super Bowl?
Yes. The model runs on any game with sufficient market liquidity, including the postseason.
From the blog
Latest analysis
Today's picks
Best Bets Today: NBA, NHL, NCAAF & 3 more Model Picks — October 29, 2026
66 model picks on today's 92-game NBA, NHL, NCAAF, WNBA & 2 more slate, with the full schedule, where the models see an edge, and how every pick is graded.
Slate preview
NBA, NHL, NCAAF & 5 more Picks Today — October 29, 2026
NBA, NHL, NCAAF, WNBA & 4 more on October 29: 94 games, 66 model picks posted before kickoff, each graded against the closing line after the final.
Today's picks
Best Bets Today: NBA, NHL, NCAAF & 3 more Model Picks — October 28, 2026
64 model picks on today's 66-game NBA, NHL, NCAAF, MLS & 2 more slate, with the full schedule, where the models see an edge, and how every pick is graded.
Daily recap
MLB, NBA, NHL & 4 more Picks Results — October 28, 2026 (59-35)
59-35 (-3.54u) on 94 graded picks · MLB, NBA, NHL, NCAAF & 3 more results for October 28: 202 events, every pick graded win or lose.
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