NCAAF · Model picks
College football, quantified.
NCAAF spread and moneyline picks from the MVP Capping model — conference-adjusted, home-field-weighted, and graded against the closing line on every game.
Live from the lab
What the models are calling right now
Every prediction is timestamped before the game starts and graded when it ends. Locked ones unlock with Pro.
Side · line · price
Lean confidence
Unlocks with Pro
Best strategies
What is working lately
A strategy is one model in one league and one market, ranked on its own graded record.
Best 30 days
Best 7 days
Best 30 days
Best 90 days
Every model, pooled · last 90 days · since 2026-07-31
- Record
- 173-225-1
- Win Rate: The percentage of settled bets that won, excluding pushes and voids from the denominator. On its own win rate can mislead — a high win rate on heavy favorites can still be unprofitable — so it is read alongside ROI and units.
- 43.5%
- Unit: A standardized stake size used to measure performance independent of bankroll — typically 1% to 2% of a bankroll. Records are tracked in units (e.g. +12.5u) so a handicapper’s results can be compared fairly without knowing dollar amounts.
- -89.08u
- total profit across all picks
- Closing Line Value (CLV): The difference between the price you got on a bet and the closing line — the final market price right before the game starts. Consistently beating the close (positive CLV) is the strongest evidence a bet had real value, independent of whether it won on the day.
- +0.00
- edge vs. the closing line
A flat 90 days on pooled units. Avg CLV stayed positive — the leading indicator, win or lose.
FAQ
NCAAF betting questions
How does the model handle conference strength?
Conference strength adjustments are baked into the power ratings, and cross-conference matchup quality is modeled explicitly rather than assumed.
Which NCAAF markets are covered?
Spread primarily, plus moneyline when the model finds edge. Game totals are not published. Lines come from CollegeFootballData and the major books.
Do you cover bowl games and the Playoff?
Yes. Post-season games are included as long as the market is liquid enough to clear the edge threshold.
Is home-field advantage factored in?
Yes. True home vs neutral site, travel distance, and altitude are all features in the NCAAF projection model.
From the blog
Latest analysis
Today's picks
Best Bets Today: NBA, NHL, NCAAF & 3 more Model Picks — October 29, 2026
66 model picks on today's 92-game NBA, NHL, NCAAF, WNBA & 2 more slate, with the full schedule, where the models see an edge, and how every pick is graded.
Slate preview
NBA, NHL, NCAAF & 5 more Picks Today — October 29, 2026
NBA, NHL, NCAAF, WNBA & 4 more on October 29: 94 games, 66 model picks posted before kickoff, each graded against the closing line after the final.
Today's picks
Best Bets Today: NBA, NHL, NCAAF & 3 more Model Picks — October 28, 2026
64 model picks on today's 66-game NBA, NHL, NCAAF, MLS & 2 more slate, with the full schedule, where the models see an edge, and how every pick is graded.
Daily recap
MLB, NBA, NHL & 4 more Picks Results — October 28, 2026 (59-35)
59-35 (-3.54u) on 94 graded picks · MLB, NBA, NHL, NCAAF & 3 more results for October 28: 202 events, every pick graded win or lose.
Newsletter
Free NCAAF pick in your inbox daily.
Get a model pick every morning — graded, timestamped, and tracked for CLV. No spam, unsubscribe anytime.
Start free — no credit card.
Full NCAAF market data and a daily model pick the moment you sign up.