Definition
A model's estimated advantage over the market: the gap between the model's projected probability of an outcome and the probability implied by the market price. A 4% edge means the model thinks the bet wins 4 percentage points more often than the price suggests.
Related terms
- Implied Probability — The win probability baked into a price. −110 implies ≈52.4%, +150 implies 40%. Comparing the model probability to this is how an edge is found.
- Expected Value (EV) — The average profit or loss per unit staked if a bet were placed many times. A positive-EV (+EV) bet profits long-term even when single bets lose.