Definition
The probability of an outcome implied by its odds. For example, -110 implies about 52.4% and +150 implies 40%. Comparing a model's projected probability to the implied probability is how an edge is found.
Related terms
- Edge — The model's estimated advantage over the market — the gap between its projected win probability and the probability implied by the price.
- Win Rate & Break-Even — At standard −110 pricing you need to win about 52.4% of bets just to break even — below that you lose over time, above it you profit.