Definition
The price a bet would pay if our estimate of the chance were exactly right and nobody took a cut. It is the model's probability turned back into odds. When the price you can actually get is better than the fair price, that gap is the edge.
Related terms
- Edge — The model's estimated advantage over the market — the gap between its projected win probability and the probability implied by the price.
- Model Probability — The model's estimated win probability for an outcome. Compared to the no-vig price to find the edge.
- Fair Price / No-Vig Price — The market price once the bookmaker margin (vig) is stripped from both sides so they sum to 100%. The honest break-even line an edge is measured against.