Definition
A market-independent number for how strong a team is, built only from final results — here an Elo rating plus rolling scoring averages. Because it never looks at betting lines, it gives the models a view of the matchup the market cannot feed back into.
Related terms
- Elo Rating — A strength rating from final results only — it rises on wins, falls on losses, adjusted for opponent and margin. The gap maps to a win probability.
- Model Probability — The model's estimated win probability for an outcome. Compared to the no-vig price to find the edge.