Definition
A pick one of our models produced that a quality gate held back — below the publish threshold, from a model still in shadow, or in a league we do not publish yet. Experimental picks are published and graded on their own separate record so their results are visible, but they are never part of the headline record, the paid board, alerts or the free pick, and they have not passed significance testing.
Related terms
- Closing Line Value (CLV) — How much a pick beat the closing line — the final market price before kickoff. Consistently positive CLV is the strongest evidence of real edge, win or lose.
- Unit — A standardized stake (typically 1–2% of bankroll) used to track results independent of dollar amounts, e.g. +12.5u.