Definition
The difference between the price you got on a bet and the closing line — the final market price right before the game starts. Consistently beating the close (positive CLV) is the strongest evidence a bet had real value, independent of whether it won on the day.
Related terms
- Fair Price / No-Vig Price — The market price once the bookmaker margin (vig) is stripped from both sides so they sum to 100%. The honest break-even line an edge is measured against.
- Edge — The model's estimated advantage over the market — the gap between its projected win probability and the probability implied by the price.