Definition
A calibration chart plotting predicted probability (x) against the actual win rate that occurred (y). A well-calibrated model hugs the 45° diagonal — when it says 60%, those bets win about 60% of the time.
Related terms
- Calibration — How well a model's stated probabilities match reality — a well-calibrated 60% pick wins about 60% of the time. Shown on a reliability curve.
- Brier Score — A forecast-accuracy score — the average squared error between predicted probabilities and outcomes. Lower is better.