Definition
The tendency for extreme results to move back toward the long-run average over time. A team on a hot or cold streak driven by luck is likely to regress, which is why ratings damp recent noise.
Related terms
- Variance — The luck-driven swing of results around their long-run expectation. Even +EV bettors have losing stretches from it.
- Elo Rating — A strength rating from final results only — it rises on wins, falls on losses, adjusted for opponent and margin. The gap maps to a win probability.