Definición
The estimated chance a team wins from the current game state — score, time remaining and situation. Live win probability updates play by play; a close game hovers near 50%, while a big lead late pushes toward 100%.
Términos relacionados
- Implied Probability — The win probability baked into a price. −110 implies ≈52.4%, +150 implies 40%. Comparing the model probability to this is how an edge is found.
- Edge — The model's estimated advantage over the market — the gap between its projected win probability and the probability implied by the price.