Definición
A 0-100 summary of how trustworthy a strategy's record is. It weighs closing line value (40%), calibration measured by the Brier score (25%), ROI (20%) and sample size (15%, full credit at 200 graded picks). 80 and above reads Excellent, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair and below 50 Weak. Under 30 graded picks it is not shown at all — a score on a handful of results would be noise. It describes the past record; it is not a forecast.
Términos relacionados
- Closing Line Value (CLV) — How much a pick beat the closing line — the final market price before kickoff. Consistently positive CLV is the strongest evidence of real edge, win or lose.
- Brier Score — A forecast-accuracy score — the average squared error between predicted probabilities and outcomes. Lower is better.
- Return on Investment (ROI) — Net profit in units divided by total units staked, as a percentage. A 5% ROI means 5 units returned for every 100 staked.
- Sample Size — How many graded bets back a record. Small samples are mostly luck — trust records over hundreds of bets.